These days, it seems like everybody and their brother is running an app store. What began as closely-controlled walled-gardens of BREW apps for flip phones, curated by mobile carriers charging steep entry fees, grew into Apple’s benchmark term-coiner “app store” and then exploded into a plethora of application delivery platforms. Google’s “Android Market” is hot on Apple’s heels and closing in on a quarter million applications. Commerce heavyweight Amazon has announced their own app marketplace for Android, and several independents (such as AndSpot, AndAppStore and others) have sprung up recently too. Even Microsoft has 5000 apps in their scintillatingly-named “Windows Phone 7 Apps Marketplace”.
Which begs the question – what’s next? I’m going to go out on a limb and make a prediction for 2011: Mobile App Rental. It’s not something you see every day in the desktop application world, but it exists. In the fickle mobile space, however, rental could be a real differentiator. As mobile apps become more tightly-focused on specific tasks, the likelihood that they’re not needed on a continual basis increases. If I’m visiting an unfamiliar city (or country, for that matter), I wouldn’t necessarily drop $1 on an “insider-guide” or offline transit map application for my destination. But if a rental offering was sufficiently differentiated from on- and off-device free alternatives, I’d gladly spend 10¢ to use a copy for a weekend. Another example might be navigation: if I’m headed to a place (say, Canada) where a mobile data connection will cost me extra roaming charges, I’d gladly rent an offline navigation app while I’m there. Once my rental expires, the app store could simply auto-remove that app from my device. Such a model trades off purchase price for volume – people who wouldn’t normally buy your app might be willing to rent it, so you can meet the needs of a larger customer base with less customer risk.
Extending the navigation example, such a model could even be implemented in-app. I use an offline GPS navigation app called CoPilot Live, which normally goes for $10 on the Android Market. My version includes only USA maps – but nothing (except, perhaps, certain app store distribution agreements) stops CoPilot from renting me maps for other countries should I only need them for a brief period. Ordinarily, purchasing the global version would cost me $40 – a cheaper alternative to paying per-diem for a car-rental-agency GPS or overseas data roaming, but still more cash than I’m willing to drop for an app I’ll only use for a few days. But paying $5 to rent that map set for the week? That I would do – it’s a powerful value proposition.
The possibilities really open up when you consider gaming – where extra levels, seasonal themes or bonus features could see greater uptake through a timed rental offering. Then, go one step further – pull GPS location right into the app store, enabling rental apps that expire when I leave the geographic vicinity they target, without ever sharing the user’s location with the app or its developer.
Will my prediction pan out? Who knows – but as developers, manufacturers, OS developers and carriers get more creative with mobile business models, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rentals hitting the streets before too long.
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